David Smith writes the ‘Economic Outlook’ column in The Sunday Times Business section. I don’t much like a lot of what he writes because he’s one of those columnists who has believed (and possibly still does) that the UK’s deficit must be eliminated and our debt must be cut now-now-now. Which is what George Osborne has been trying to do since 2010 – and singularly failed. But, in the meantime, Osborne has managed to cut capital expenditure significantly, while off-loading a load of costs that used to be borne by central government onto local authorities. Not to mention the damage he and his ilk of ‘small-staters’ have done to the NHS and social services. All for want of taxing a bit more and borrowing a bit more, when ‘the markets’ are actually paying governments to borrow. Nearly all mainstream academic economists believe this has been counterproductive, as do even some working for banks and newspapers, not to mention the IMF.
But I digress.
In today’s column (29-05-2016) David Smith tackles some of the Brexiters’ economic and ‘resources’ arguments. And he does it very well indeed.
Firstly, he quotes data from HMRC showing that ‘recently arrived’ immigrants paid £2.5b more in taxes in 2013-1014 than they received in tax credits and benefits. Presumably this surplus in tax revenue over expenditure from immigrants has been going on for some time – and is likely to continue. David Smith says ‘Part of this money has been used to cut the budget deficit. But it is also as available as anybody else’s taxes to pay for public services‘.
Well, wash your mouth out. He’s not seriously suggesting that, if we have a load of new immigrants increasing pressure on our housing and public services (NHS and education especially), we should be spending tax-payers’ money to boost spending on housing and public services, is he? I do believe he might be… Though it is almost as a throwaway, as if he doesn’t want people to notice he was kind-of suggesting it.
Which brings me to his second excellent point. He looks at the alleged ‘job transfer machine’ – the allegation that all these immigrants are taking the jobs of stout British workers. David Smith points out that the number of UK-born workers in employment (I think he’s quoting ONS, but I can’t be sure) has increased by 1.1m to 26.25m since the low of Jan-March 2010. A record apparently. And, not only that, but in the 6 years to the end of first-quarter 2016 there was an increase from 70.7% to 74.6% in the UK-born employment rate. Just wow, eh? Still believe they are taking our jobs? Unemployment has been going down (fact) since all these immigrants have been ‘swamping’ in from the EU.
So, clearly, these new immigrants are taking jobs and starting businesses which truly needed to be filled and needed to be started. They are contributing in spades to the growth of the UK economy (our growth, while lacklustre, due to – ahem – austerity, has been better than that of most developed economies) and recent immigrants, as well as boosting growth, are, as we saw, substantial net contributors to our tax revenue.
So – that all being the case, we really should stop moaning about the immigrant pressure on resources and bloody, bloody (bloody) well spend the money, even if he have to borrow some, on training more doctors, other education-resources, housing, health-resources and social services that our increased population now requires. Surely that’s not difficult to see – unless of course one is determined to cut public expenditure, no matter what, as a matter of religious belief…
I’m not sure if David Smith would agree, but he does seem to sort-of agree. Doesn’t he?
And, while we are on the subject of Brexit – here is some really great stuff from ‘Rick’ at flipchartfairytales. He has done his homework…