Tag Archives: UKIP

My instinctive take on Brexit (now that it’s happening)

NOTE: Blue and 10 March 2017 edit-inserts are the latest…

The Brexit result has been achieved through the anger of many of the British people.

  1. It will be bad for the UK economy in the short-medium term. I have no idea about the long term (but in the long term we are all dead, especially the elderly)
    • JURY STILL OUT – PLUS SEE ORIGINAL EDIT MUCH BELOW(edit 10 March 2017)
  2. Unfortunately, before the long term it is also likely to facilitate the break-up of the EU and boost the already growing fascist movements across Europe
    • LOOKING MORE LIKELY – JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  3. In the UK this will be because the ‘promise’ of Brexit (control over our laws, regulations and, above all, immigration) will not produce the effects the mass of Brexiters will be expecting: immigrants will still come in as long as and in the numbers our economy needs them, which is what has been happening up to now
    • DOH! (SIGH…) JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  4. And if the UK economy no longer needs them, or it does need them, but is deliberately starved of immigrants by border controls, that means our economy will be shrinking
    • DOH! (SIGH…) JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  5. Which means the majority of British people will be poorer and more angry
    • JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  6. Scotland may begin the process of leaving the UK… And Northern Ireland may see a renewed outbreak of civil war as many there will want to join the Republic of Ireland. Those events will add to the messiness of things, to say the least
    • BOTH LOOKING MORE LIKE A RACING CERTAINTY (edit 10 March 2017)
  7. Back in England and Wales, the regulations which protected UK workers rights as employees will be dismantled in the name of setting business free of its shackles (which will do bugger-all to help free enterprise boost the economy, but may put extra money into the salaries and bonuses of the most senior managers and owners of SMEs and some large corporations), thus making the poor even more angry
    • JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  8. UKIP will then morph into a fully-fledged fascist party and more people will vote for it
    • INCOMPETENCE LOOKS LIKE PUTTING PAID TO THIS; AND IT MIGHT SPLIT, LIKE MOST EXTREMIST PARTIES WITHOUT A VERY STRONG CHARISMATIC LEADER (edit 10 March 2017) 
  9. While similar stuff will be happening happen all over Europe (it is already beginning in France, Holland, Poland, Hungary, Austria)
    • AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SUCCESSFUL ER… POST-DICTION (edit 10 March 2017)
  10. In the meantime, elsewhere, Trump may well be elected US president
    • YUP THAT DID HAPPEN (edit 10 March 2017)
  11. It’ll be the 1930s all over again
    • JURY STILL OUT, BUT IT IS GOING IN THAT DIRECTION (edit 10 March 2017)
  12. Russia may take advantage of the chaos to physically join up with Kaliningrad via either an invasion of Poland or an invasion of Lithuania (probably Lithuania), which might spark a major European war
    • BIT LIKE AN EARTHQUAKE OR VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE MAKING, RUSSIA IS DOING EARTH-TREMORS, BUT JURY STILL OUT (edit 10 March 2017)
  13. But a Trump-led America could well stay out of that, saying ‘not our problem’
    • MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH A BULLY-COWARD IN OFFICE, BUT EVEN WORSE, GO ATOMIC TO ‘BOMB THE SHIT OUT OF THEM’ – (NOW THERE’S A DISTRACTION FROM HEALTHCARE AND OTHER INCOMPETENCIES) (edit 10 March 2017)
  14. Lithuania falls, because an enfeebled NATO has no chance of stopping Russia. But I don’t think this will seem very important in western Europe
    • BUT HAND-WRINGING IS A POSSIBILITY (edit 10 March 2017)

EDIT the first

I think the expression ‘clusterfuck’ was invented for just such a rolling scenario.

Here was The Economist’s Kal’s take

In the meantime…

  1. What I’d now be very interested to see is the UK’s balance of trade figures broken down by sector and the likely effect on this of a newly persistent GBP£/US$ ratio of 1.4 and GBP£/euro ratio of 1.3. with tariffs imposed as if we were not in the EEA (free trade area).
  2. Also a back of envelope calculation of the likely effect of just these two items on UK domestic inflation and on UK GDP (ignoring ‘confidence’ effects ie all other things being equal, which I’m sure they won’t be… But let’s keep it simple)
    • THIS WAS ME WONDERING WHETHER A DEVALUATION MIGHT NOT BRING SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM GAINS TO THE UK ECONOMY WHILE MOST PUNDITS WERE PREDICTING IMMEDIATE DISASTER. lLOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT TO WONDER…

EDIT the second

As for 1930s … Trump’s America looks very much like going Authoritarian (Fascist? Racist?). The relationship of Trump’s USA with Putin’s Russia look like becoming very ‘interesting’ indeed. I’m obviously not the only one who thinks so. This from Frances Coppola’ s blog on the likely repercussions of the Trump administration.

She sees a major realignment of powers taking place, with chunks of eastern Europe returning to Russia’s fold and a likelihood of the return of American military action in the Middle East (and elsewhere – China, North Korea), less tentative than recently. With North African and Midddle East oil taken out of ISIS and other radical Islamist control – no accident that an ex-oil boss is now Trump’s Secretary of State – and possible Russian takeover of Iran’s Caspian oilfields.

If it gets any more ‘interesting’ we won’t have to worry so much about jobs and pensions…